Statements for July have now been posted to the client portal. We finished the month +1.12%, contrast to what was seemingly a huge month for the broader markets. However, in volatility land, things were muted on the surface. Despite the continued dire economic outlook, markets rebounded from the recent lows posted in June which was attributed to technical positioning. What I mean by that is when the market gets too one sided there is a high probability for a reversion BEYOND the mean type of activity and that is exactly what we saw this past month. Here’s a simple analogy to illustrate – think of riding in a canoe where you’re constantly trying to maintain balance to prevent tipping over. Well, when all the weight suddenly shifts and gets too one sided the inevitable happens and you eventually tip over. The same thing happens in markets when positioning gets too one sided. Coming into July most market participants held bearish positions according to our data. At some point when those positions get covered – it sets off a flurry of buying activity. It’s important to understand here the difference between unwinding of bearish positions and natural buying. Most get these two confused due to lack of understanding and access to data. Most see markets go up and they think it’s due to buying. Well sure….but one must know market positioning in order to ascertain what type of buying. The reason we point this out is due to the numerous inquiries asking if we think the bottom is in. Thankfully we are not in the business of predicting tops and bottoms as that is a fool’s game. We don’t trade price path but rather price variation, aka volatility! Very different ballgame and very important to understand. The point of all of this is better educate you as one might think that since markets were up big this past month that volatility was high. Unfortunately, that’s not the case as volatility was quite suppressed across the board. There is a degree of seasonality that the markets historically tend to follow, and we just saw what I like to call “summer doldrums”. With the mid-term elections approaching this fall – there will be plenty of volatility to be had throughout the rest of the year, that I can assure you.
